Drought has been recognized as a disaster in view of its spatial expanse, temporal duration, slow onset…

Question

Drought has been recognized as a disaster in view of its spatial expanse, temporal duration, slow onset and lasting effects on vulnerable sections. With a focus on the September 2010 guidelines from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), discuss the mechanisms for preparedness to deal with likely El Niño and La Niña fallouts in India.

Ghissu Editorial · Accepted Answer

The NDMA's 2010 drought guidelines prepare India for El Nino and La Nina fallouts through early warning, scientific declaration on composite indicators, district contingency plans and long-term mitigation with relief. The El Nino year of 2009 left monsoon rainfall about 22% below normal.

**Introduction**

The El Nino year of 2009 left India's monsoon about 22% below normal, the worst since 1972. As drought is slow, widespread and long-lasting, the NDMA's drought guidelines (September 2010) make preparedness the core of the response.

**El Nino and La Nina Fallouts for India**

SKETCH: comparison | El Nino versus La Nina for India
a: El Nino
b: La Nina
- Warm east Pacific :: Cool east Pacific
- Weaker summer monsoon :: Stronger summer monsoon
- Drought, heat, crop loss :: Floods, landslides
- Food inflation risk :: Weaker northeast monsoon

1. **Drought risk**: Severe droughts such as 2002 and 2009 came in El Nino years, and the NDMA counts about 68% of the cultivable area as drought-prone.
2. **Uncertain link**: The strong El Nino of 1997 brought a normal monsoon as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole offset it, so plans must work on probabilities.
3. **La Nina fallouts**: Floods and landslides follow a stronger monsoon, while the northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu tends to weaken.

**Preparedness Mechanisms in NDMA Guidelines (2010)**

1. **Early warning**: IMD's ENSO-linked forecasts and NRSC's NADAMS vegetation index feed state Drought Monitoring Cells, as in Karnataka since 1988.
2. **Scientific declaration**: Composite indicators of rainfall, area sown, vegetation, soil moisture and reservoirs replace late crop-yield estimates.
3. **Contingency planning**: ICAR-CRIDA district plans keep short-duration seeds, alternate crops and fodder ready for a delayed or failed monsoon.
4. **Mitigation and relief**: Watersheds, rainwater harvesting and crop insurance reduce risk, while MGNREGA work and drinking water, funded through the SDRF and NDRF, cushion the shock.

**Conclusion**

The guidelines turned drought from a calamity met with relief into a forecastable risk, letting India treat every El Nino or La Nina forecast as an early signal to protect the most vulnerable.

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