How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing…

Question

How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

Ghissu Editorial · Accepted Answer

Humanised landscapes are largely, though not wholly, changing the Indian monsoon: aerosols, deforestation, cities and a warming ocean are making its rains weaker in total and more extreme, while El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole still set yearly swings. Summer monsoon rainfall fell about 6% between 1951 and 2015.

**Introduction**

The monsoon deficits of 2014 and 2015 revived the debate on human influence. The MoES Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020) found that summer monsoon rainfall fell by about 6% from 1951 to 2015, with more dry spells and intense bursts.

**How Humanised Landscapes Alter Monsoon Behaviour**

SKETCH: flow | Human Landscape to Weaker Monsoon
- Aerosols and lost forest
- Land surface cools, recycles less
- Land-sea contrast weakens
- Weaker, erratic circulation

1. **Aerosol haze**: Bollasina and colleagues (Science, 2011) tied the post-1950 weakening mainly to man-made aerosols cooling the Indo-Gangetic plain.
2. **Land-use change**: A 2016 study in Scientific Reports showed that converting forest to farmland cuts evapotranspiration, moisture recycling and rainfall.
3. **Urban heat islands**: Cities are linked to fiercer local downpours that paved land turns into floods, as with the 944 mm that fell on Mumbai's Santacruz on 26 July 2005.
4. **Warming ocean**: Roxy and colleagues found a faster-warming Indian Ocean weakens the land-sea contrast, and recorded a threefold rise in widespread extreme rain over central India.

**Natural Drivers and Limits of the Human Signal**

1. **Oscillations**: El Nino droughts in 2009 and 2015 and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole of 2019 show natural cycles still set yearly totals.
2. **Epochal variability**: All-India rainfall moves through wet and dry epochs of about three decades, so short trends are easy to over-read.
3. **Stable total**: IMD revised the Long Period Average only from 88 cm to 87 cm, so the change is more in pattern than in quantity.

**Conclusion**

The claim holds largely but not wholly: humanised landscapes are reshaping where, when and how hard it rains, while natural oscillations still decide good and bad years. Cleaner air, restored forests and climate-smart cities are therefore part of monsoon resilience.

How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

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