A number of outside powers have entrenched themselves in Central Asia, which is a zone of interest to…

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A number of outside powers have entrenched themselves in Central Asia, which is a zone of interest to India. Discuss the implications, in this context, of India's joining the Ashgabat Agreement, 2018.

Ghissu Editorial · Accepted Answer

Joining the Ashgabat Agreement in 2018 gave India a multimodal route to Central Asia via Iran that bypasses Pakistan and offers an alternative to Chinese and Russian dominance. Its value depends on linking it with Chabahar and the INSTC, which the 2014 dry run found about 30% cheaper than the Suez route.

**Introduction**

China's Belt and Road and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union have entrenched both powers in Central Asia. India's accession in February 2018 to the Ashgabat Agreement, the 2011 Iran-Oman-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan transit pact for a Central Asia-Persian Gulf corridor, is its answer.

**Gains for India from the Ashgabat Agreement**

SKETCH: flow | India's Route to Central Asia
- Western Indian ports
- Chabahar, Bandar Abbas
- Iran rail network
- Turkmenistan (Ashgabat)
- Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan

1. **Bypassing Pakistan**: It links Chabahar port and the INSTC to Ashgabat's road and rail network, a land bridge to Central Asia beyond Pakistan's transit veto.
2. **Cheaper trade**: The 2014 INSTC dry run showed the route could be about 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the Suez route.
3. **Energy security**: Easier access backs the TAPI gas pipeline and Kazakh uranium supplies.
4. **Strategic presence**: It gives substance to Connect Central Asia (2012) and India's SCO membership (2017), offering a partner that does not trade loans for leverage.

**Limits in a Crowded Central Asia**

1. **Iran dependence**: The US exit from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and doubts over the Chabahar waiver deter investors.
2. **Missing links**: Afghanistan's instability and thin rail capacity keep traffic low.
3. **Unequal scale**: India's trade with the region is a fraction of China's, and Pakistan's own accession (2016) makes the pact a shared, not exclusive, platform.

**Conclusion**

Ashgabat turns India's Central Asia policy into routes, completing a Gulf-to-Eurasia chain with Chabahar and INSTC. Its value depends on filling that corridor with trade and investment, as the India-Central Asia Summit (2022) and the ten-year Chabahar contract (2024) have begun to do.

A number of outside powers have entrenched themselves in Central Asia, which is a zone of interest to India. Discuss the implications, in this context, of India's joining the Ashgabat Agreement, 2018.

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