"The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the…

Question

"The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union." Explain.

Ghissu Editorial · Accepted Answer

China is a greater challenge to the US than the Soviet Union was because it rivals America economically, technologically and militarily from inside the globalised order, though the threat is to US primacy more than its existence. ASPI's 2023 tracker found China ahead in 37 of 44 critical technologies.

**Introduction**

The US Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (2021) called China the only competitor able to combine economic, diplomatic, military and technological power into a sustained challenge, a breadth the Soviet Union never had.

**Why China Outweighs the Soviet Challenge**

SKETCH: comparison | USSR vs China as US Rival
a: Soviet Union
b: China
- Closed command economy :: World's factory
- Military-ideological rival :: Rival in every domain
- Bloc-bound reach :: Global BRI reach
- Outside US economy :: Inside US supply chains

1. **Economic weight**: China's economy is larger than America's in purchasing-power terms (IMF), and US-China goods trade hit about US$690 billion in 2022, leverage Moscow never had.
2. **Technology race**: ASPI's Critical Technology Tracker (2023) found China ahead in 37 of 44 critical technologies, led by Huawei in 5G.
3. **Military modernisation**: The PLA Navy is the world's largest by ship count, and the Pentagon's 2024 report counts over 600 nuclear warheads, heading to 1,000 by 2030.
4. **Influence and model**: The Belt and Road Initiative spans some 150 countries, and China's state-led capitalism appears to work where Soviet communism stagnated.

**Why "Existential" Overstates the Threat**

1. **US strengths**: NATO, the Quad and AUKUS (2021), and a dollar that holds over half of world reserves, leave the US with advantages China lacks.
2. **China's limits**: A population that fell in 2022 and the Evergrande property crisis expose its vulnerabilities, while interdependence and nuclear deterrence make this a contest for primacy, not survival.

**Conclusion**

China is a more comprehensive challenger than the Soviet Union because it competes from inside the globalised order. The threat is to American primacy more than its existence, which is why Washington answers with alliances and the CHIPS and Science Act (2022), and the rivalry raises India's value as a partner.

"The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union." Explain.

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