2026 · GS Paper 2 · Q20 · 15 marks

“China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has transformed South Asia from a regional space into a theatre of great power competition.” Analyse the strategic implications of the BRI for India’s security and regional influence in South Asia.

In short

China's Belt and Road Initiative threatens India's security through CPEC across Gilgit-Baltistan and dual-use ports, and erodes its regional pre-eminence, though BRI debt troubles give India an opening. Hambantota, leased to China for 99 years in 2017, shows how loans become strategic access.

Model answer

Ghissu Editorial · Verified 4 Oct 2026

Introduction
Since 2013, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reached every South Asian state except India and Bhutan, turning India's natural sphere into a contested space and testing the Neighbourhood First claim to be the region's first partner.
Implications for India's Security
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Sovereignty and two fronts

CPEC runs through Gilgit-Baltistan, so India has boycotted the Belt and Road Forum since 2017, and it ties China to Pakistan, whose Chinese J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles were used in the May 2025 conflict.

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Maritime footholds

Gwadar, Hambantota (leased for 99 years in 2017) and Kyaukphyu sit on India's sea lanes, and the tracking ship Yuan Wang 5 docked at Hambantota in August 2022.

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Digital and Himalayan reach

Digital Silk Road telecom networks and roads planned under Nepal's BRI framework (December 2024) extend China to India's frontier.

Implications for India's Regional Influence
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Rival partner

Projects such as the Sinamale Bridge and the China-Maldives FTA (2025) erode India's role as default partner.

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Leverage for neighbours

Small states play China against India to extract better terms, weakening India's bargaining power.

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BRI limits

Sri Lanka's 2022 default, with China as its largest bilateral creditor, exposed the debt risk, while India's US$4 billion support restored its standing.

Way Forward
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Credible alternatives

Faster Kaladan, BBIN and IMEC delivery, SAGAR-MAHASAGAR maritime partnerships and co-financing with Japan and the Quad.

Conclusion
The BRI has made South Asia a theatre of great-power competition with real security costs for India. Reliable delivery, maritime partnership and strategic autonomy can keep India the region's partner of choice.

This model answer is indicative and the model can make mistakes; please verify key facts independently.

Hand-drawn map: BRI footholds around India. Marked: Gwadar, Hambantota, Kyaukphyu.
Map: BRI footholds around India
Hand-drawn diagram: From Loans to Leverage. From Loans to Leverage. Flow: Infrastructure loans → Debt stress → Lease or equity → Port access
Diagram: From Loans to Leverage

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Neighbourhood Relations13 questions

Asked in 7 of 14 sittings since 2013

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2015
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2016
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2018
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2019
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2020
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2021
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2022
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2023
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2025
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2026
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Question from the official UPSC Civil Services (Main) Examination 2026 paper. Answer written by Ghissu's engine and checked against our editorial standards. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it within 48 hours.

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