2013 · GS Paper 2 · Q22 · 10 marks

Discuss the political developments in Maldives in the last two years. Should they be of any cause of concern to India ?

In short

In 2012-13 the Maldives saw Nasheed's forced resignation, a politicised Supreme Court that annulled an election, and the cancellation of GMR's Male airport contract. These were a real but manageable concern for India, given the islands' place beside key sea lanes and China's growing presence.

Model answer

Ghissu Editorial · Verified 4 Oct 2026

Introduction
The Maldives, a young democracy astride the Arabian Sea's sea lanes, saw a forced change of government, a contested judiciary and an annulled election in 2012-13, each touching India's interests.
Political Developments in the Maldives, 2012-13
•

Contested transfer

Mohamed Nasheed resigned in February 2012 amid a police and military mutiny over his detention of a Criminal Court judge, calling it a coup, though a Commonwealth-backed inquiry upheld Waheed's succession.

•

Politicised judiciary

The Supreme Court annulled the September 2013 first round that Nasheed led, and Abdulla Yameen won the November runoff.

•

Economic nationalism

The Waheed government cancelled GMR's roughly $500 million Male airport contract in November 2012.

•

Strategic location

Astride the Eight Degree and One and a Half Degree Channels, a hostile Male would weaken India's first-responder role, shown in Operation Cactus (1988).

•

China's opening

China opened its Male embassy in 2011, and the Yameen years brought a China-Maldives free trade agreement (2017).

•

Investor risk

The GMR episode showed Indian projects could become hostages to domestic politics, and Nasheed's refuge in the Indian mission in 2013 drew India into partisan rivalry.

•

Radicalisation

Parties such as the Adhaalath Party, which joined Waheed's government, gave radical currents a voice, and Islamist drift so close to Lakshadweep raises India's security stakes.

Conclusion
These developments were a real but manageable concern, as later swings proved: Muizzu's "India Out" campaign gave way to a $400 million currency swap in 2024. Engaging institutions and people rather than personalities, under SAGAR, keeps the Maldives close.

This model answer is indicative and the model can make mistakes; please verify key facts independently.

Hand-drawn diagram: Maldives in Turmoil. Maldives in Turmoil. Diagram (timeline): Maldives in Turmoil; Jan 2012; Judge detained; Feb 2012; Nasheed resigns; Nov 2012; GMR deal scrapped; Feb 2013; Nasheed in Indian mission; Nov 2013; Yameen elected
Diagram: Maldives in Turmoil

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Neighbourhood Relations13 questions

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