2014 · GS Paper 1 · Q16 · 10 marks
Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El-Nino effect. Do you agree?
In short
El Nino explains many unusual climatic events, from Indian monsoon droughts to global record warmth, but not most of them, since the Indian Ocean Dipole, La Nina, mid-latitude systems, warming and local factors also drive extremes. A positive IOD kept the 1997 monsoon normal despite a very strong El Nino.
Model answer
Ghissu Editorial · Verified 4 Oct 2026 · 272 words
Monsoon droughts
El Nino suppresses convection over India, and the 2009 and 2015 droughts both coincided with El Nino years.
Global teleconnections
It brings drought and fires to Australia and Indonesia, as in the 1997-98 haze, and floods to coastal Peru.
Marine shocks
Halted upwelling collapsed Peru's anchoveta fishery in 1972-73, and the 1998 and 2016 global coral bleaching events followed strong El Ninos.
Record warmth
The 2015-16 and 2023-24 events helped make 2016 and 2024 record warm years.
Other ocean modes
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole kept the 1997 monsoon normal despite a strong El Nino, and the 2020-23 triple-dip La Nina is linked to the 2022 Pakistan floods.
Other atmospheric drivers
Western Disturbances and the Madden-Julian Oscillation drive many extremes independently of ENSO.
Long-term warming
IMD reports 2016-2025 as India's warmest decade, a trend no cyclical event explains.
Local factors
Topography and land use shaped the 2013 Kedarnath disaster in an ENSO-neutral year.
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Question from the official UPSC Civil Services (Main) Examination 2014 paper. Answer written by Ghissu's engine and checked against our editorial standards. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it within 48 hours.