2015 · GS Paper 2 · Q13 · 12 marks

Though there have been several different estimates of poverty in India, all indicate reduction in poverty levels over time. Do you agree? Critically examine with reference to urban and rural poverty indicators.

In short

Every major estimate, from the Tendulkar and Rangarajan lines to NITI Aayog's MPI, shows rural and urban poverty falling, though they differ sharply on its level. On the Tendulkar line, rural poverty fell from 41.8% to 25.7% and urban poverty from 25.7% to 13.7% between 2004-05 and 2011-12.

Model answer

Ghissu Editorial · Verified 4 Oct 2026

Introduction
India has counted the poor with the Tendulkar (2009) and Rangarajan (2014) consumption lines, NITI Aayog's multidimensional index and the World Bank's international line. They differ on how many are poor, so the test is whether they converge on direction.
Rural and Urban Indicators Showing a Decline
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Consumption lines

On the Tendulkar line, rural poverty fell from 41.8% (2004-05) to 25.7% (2011-12) and urban poverty from 25.7% to 13.7%.

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Multidimensional index

NITI Aayog's National MPI (2023) shows rural poverty falling from 32.59% (2015-16) to 19.28% (2019-21) and urban poverty from 8.65% to 5.27%.

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Spending and global lines

HCES 2022-23 shows the urban-rural spending gap narrowing from 84% to 71%, and the World Bank (2025) finds rural extreme poverty down from 18.4% to 2.8% and urban from 10.7% to 1.1%.

Where the Poverty Indicators Diverge
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Line decides level

Urban poverty nearly doubles under the Rangarajan line because it counts rent and conveyance.

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Hidden urban poverty

The Hashim Committee (2012) urged a vulnerability-based count, since many of the 6.5 crore slum dwellers (Census 2011) face deprivation a spending line misses.

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Fragile gains

The State of Working India 2021 estimated that 23 crore people slipped below the minimum wage threshold in the pandemic, and NFHS-5 (2019-21) still found 35.5% of children stunted.

Conclusion
I agree with the claim on direction, since every line shows rural and urban poverty falling, but not on magnitude. Regular consumption surveys and a vulnerability lens are needed to meet SDG 1.2.

This model answer is indicative and the model can make mistakes; please verify key facts independently.

Hand-drawn diagram: Same Year, Different Counts (2011-12). Same Year, Different Counts (2011-12). Comparison of Tendulkar line and Rangarajan line
Diagram: Same Year, Different Counts (2011-12)

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Question from the official UPSC Civil Services (Main) Examination 2015 paper. Answer written by Ghissu's engine and checked against our editorial standards. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it within 48 hours.

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