Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty OR poverty is the main cause of…

Question

Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty OR poverty is the main cause of population increase in India.

Ghissu Editorial · Accepted Answer

Population growth aggravates poverty through land dilution and surplus labour, but poverty is the main cause of high fertility through child mortality, insecurity and low female schooling. NFHS-5 records a TFR of about 2.6 in the poorest wealth quintile against 1.6 in the richest.

**Introduction**

Malthus (1798) blamed population for misery, while the slogan "development is the best contraceptive", voiced by Karan Singh at Bucharest in 1974, reversed the arrow. Indian evidence shows a two-way link of unequal force.

**How Population Growth Deepens Poverty**

1. **Resource dilution**: Average farm holdings fell to 1.08 hectares (Agriculture Census 2015-16), trapping families in low-productivity farming.
2. **Surplus labour and services**: Young entrants outpace formal jobs and crowd into informal work, the 'reserve army of labour' Marx said keeps wages low, while fast-growing states like Bihar stretch schools and hospitals thin.
3. **Ecological strain**: Pressure on groundwater, forests and village commons hurts the rural poor first, because they depend on them most.

**How Poverty Sustains High Fertility**

1. **Insurance births and child labour**: High child mortality and the need for early earners and old-age support make large families rational for the poor.
2. **Education gap**: NFHS-5 (2019-21) records a TFR of about 2.6 in the poorest wealth quintile against 1.6 in the richest, with a similar gap by women's schooling.
3. **Regional proof**: Kerala reached replacement fertility by the late 1980s through female literacy despite modest incomes, while Bihar has the highest TFR (3.0) and the highest multidimensional poverty headcount (NITI MPI, 2023).

SKETCH: flow-cycle | The Poverty-Population Trap
- Poverty
- High child mortality
- More births as insurance
- Population pressure
- Low per-capita income

**Conclusion**

Poverty is the main cause: population growth aggravates it, but poverty, through child deaths, insecurity and lack of women's schooling, keeps fertility high. Kerala's path, not coercion, shows that human development breaks the cycle and secures the demographic dividend.

Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty OR poverty is the main cause of population increase in India.

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