Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political…

Question

Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations.

Ghissu Editorial · Accepted Answer

The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 gave India the eastern rivers and Pakistan the western ones, and its ecological, economic and political stakes now track a hostile bilateral relationship. After the Pahalgam attack of April 2025, India held the treaty in abeyance.

**Introduction**

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 by Nehru and Ayub Khan with the World Bank as broker, survived three wars, but after the Uri attack of 2016 India declared that "blood and water cannot flow together".

**Account of the Indus Waters Treaty**

SKETCH: comparison | IWT River Allocation
a: Eastern rivers
b: Western rivers
- Ravi, Beas, Sutlej :: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab
- About 33 MAF :: About 135 MAF
- Allotted to India :: Allotted to Pakistan
- Unrestricted Indian use :: Limited Indian use

1. **Core bargain**: India received the eastern rivers outright, and on the western rivers may only build run-of-river hydro projects with limited storage and irrigation.
2. **Dispute machinery**: A Permanent Indus Commission shares data, and disputes go to a Neutral Expert (Baglihar, 2007) or a Court of Arbitration (Kishenganga, 2013, which fixed a minimum flow of 9 cumecs).

**Implications amid Changing Bilateral Relations**

1. **Ecological**: The treaty ignores glacier retreat, groundwater and pollution, leaving both sides exposed in a warming basin.
2. **Economic**: The Shahpur Kandi dam (2024) now holds back unused Ravi water, and Chenab projects such as Pakal Dul and Ratle unlock hydropower, which Pakistan, dependent on Indus irrigation, sees as a threat.
3. **Political**: India served modification notices in 2023 and 2024 and held the treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam attack of April 2025; Pakistan called any stoppage of water an act of war.
4. **Strategic precedent**: As a lower riparian facing China's planned 60 GW Medog dam on the Brahmaputra (MP-IDSA, 2024), India must weigh the norms its Indus stance sets.

**Conclusion**

The IWT proves that water cooperation can outlast war but not lasting distrust. A revised framework with climate data and environmental flows, alongside full use of India's rightful share, would make the Indus a shared lifeline again.

Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations.

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